Recent polling indicates that One Nation has surged ahead of the Australian Labor Party on primary votes [1].
This shift suggests a growing disconnect between the government's current policy direction and a segment of the electorate, potentially altering the dynamics of the next federal election.
Data from the DemosAU poll shows One Nation gained two percentage points on primary votes [4]. The Morgan poll mirrored this result, also showing a two percentage point increase for the party [4]. These gains follow a period of growth for the party that began after the federal budget on May 12, 2026 [5].
However, the trend is not uniform across all surveys. According to The Conversation, One Nation was down one percentage point in a YouGov poll [3]. This contradiction highlights a volatility in the party's current momentum, even as it maintains a lead over Labor on primary votes [3].
The polling surge follows a high-profile address by Pauline Hanson (One Nation) at the National Press Club on June 17, 2026 [6]. The party's rise coincides with a period of transition for the opposition, with new data released two weeks after Angus Taylor took over the Coalition leadership [7].
While One Nation has regained a lead over Labor in some surprise polls [2], the stability of this lead remains a point of contention among analysts. Some reports indicate that while the party leads on primary votes, it is no longer gaining ground in every metric [3]. The impact of this shift is particularly evident in specific regional scenarios, such as potential outcomes if Victoria were to vote now [8].
Anthony Albanese (Labor) continues to lead the government amidst these sliding primary numbers. The interplay between the Coalition's leadership change and One Nation's growth creates a complex three-way struggle for the primary vote across various Australian states.
“One Nation has surged ahead of the Australian Labor Party on primary votes”
The rise of One Nation on primary votes indicates a fragmentation of the traditional two-party system in Australia. While primary vote leads do not always translate directly to seats in Parliament due to the preferential voting system, a surge in right-wing populist support puts pressure on both the Labor government and the Coalition to pivot their policy platforms to recapture disillusioned voters.
