Liquid fuel consumption in Colombia will continue to grow through 2031, according to the Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association (ACP) [1].
This projection suggests that the country cannot rely on current supply levels to meet future energy needs. Failure to strengthen imports of diesel and gasoline could lead to shortages, particularly as international price volatility and climate events stress the national infrastructure [1, 2].
Andrés Bitar, vice president of strategy and regulatory affairs for the ACP, said that the country must guarantee fuel supply to avoid potential crises [1]. He said that the demand for these fuels is not expected to decrease in the coming years, creating a long-term reliance on external sources [1].
Weather patterns present a significant risk to this stability. A high-intensity El Niño phenomenon could force Colombia to increase its fuel demand by 30% [2]. Such a spike in consumption would put immediate pressure on the import chain and the government's ability to maintain steady pricing [2].
Logistical vulnerabilities have previously hampered the distribution of energy resources. Social blockades in 2023 put 45 million gallons of liquid fuels at risk [3]. These disruptions highlight the fragility of the transport network used to move fuel from ports to the interior of the country [3].
To address these needs, the liquid fuels sector projected investments of 3.3 trillion pesos in 2023 [4]. These investments are part of a broader effort to modernize infrastructure and ensure that the supply chain can withstand both social unrest, and environmental shocks [4].
Bitar said that the combination of growing demand and international price swings makes the strengthening of import mechanisms a priority for the state [1].
“Liquid fuel consumption in Colombia will continue to grow through 2031”
Colombia's energy strategy faces a contradiction between long-term decarbonization goals and the immediate reality of rising fuel demand. The reliance on imports to cover a projected growth through 2031 leaves the economy vulnerable to external price shocks and climate-driven demand spikes, meaning energy security will depend heavily on the efficiency of port logistics and the stability of international trade.
