President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a potential second-round presidential election, according to Quaest polling [1].
These results highlight the enduring polarization of the Brazilian electorate as the country approaches the October 2026 general elections. The contest pits the current administration's record against the influence of the Bolsonaro family's political machinery.
Data released on July 15 shows Lula with 45% of the vote [3], while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 37% [3]. This reflects a slight shift from earlier data released on June 10, which placed Lula at 44% [1] and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% [1]. The survey was conducted by the research institute Quaest in partnership with Genial [3].
The consistent gap between the two candidates suggests a stable but competitive landscape. While Lula maintains a lead of six to eight percentage points across these reports, the figures indicate a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, or split between the two primary contenders.
"Lula lidera com 45% no 2º turno, contra 37% de Flávio Bolsonaro," G1 said [3].
Other reports from the same period echoed these findings. The Diário de Pernambuco said that Lula has 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 37% in a second-round scenario [4]. These numbers contrast with some initial headlines suggesting Bolsonaro at 39%, though the verified survey data remains lower [1, 3].
As the campaign progresses toward the October deadline, both candidates are expected to target the undecided voters who could swing the result. The PT and PL parties continue to mobilize their bases to solidify these percentages before the final vote.
“Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round presidential election”
The polling data suggests that while the current administration retains a lead, the race remains a high-stakes battle between the left-wing PT and the right-wing PL. The stability of Lula's lead across June and July indicates a consolidated base, but the narrow margin emphasizes that Flávio Bolsonaro remains a viable challenger capable of mobilizing a significant portion of the conservative vote.
